The message seems to be clear. Young, growing populations and high scope for catch-up mean emerging economies still offer the best prospects for long-term growth. Today’s emerging markets are tomorrow’s powerhouses, according to a recent forecast from Standard Chartered.
The bank sees developing economies like Indonesia, Turkey, Brazil, and Egypt all moving up the ladder – and by 2030, it estimates that seven of the world’s ten largest economies in GDP (PPP) terms will be in emerging markets.
I can see that emerging markets have some advantages (like a young population).
But to think that countries like Egypt or Turkey can overtake Germany or Japan in only 11 years is little bit too optimistic. Isn’t it? What do you think?
So what is the IMF saying about it? The October 2018 IMF Economic Outlook sees Russia recovering to about 1 to 2% GDP growth. Brazil and Turkey are in the 0 to 3% GDP growth range. Egypt is forecasted to be 5-6% GDP growth through 2023.
What would accelerate the growth of Turkey to overtake Japan and Germany in the next decade? I cannot see a stimulus or is that lack of imagination?